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Here what effects prices:
Lets start with interest rates…because I guarantee this is going to be a hot topic in 2019, and this pretty much has a ripple effect across the economy. My prediction for 2019 is that the FED is going to be VERY strategic with their rate increases…they see the immediate impact a rate increase has on the stock market, and any HUGE rate hike would be detrimental to the economy. Because of that, I think we’ll see rates increase about half a point in 2019.
Next, lets talk about supply and demand – and with that, we’ll talk about excess inventory because the two are directly correlated. I’m personally seeing a LOT of excess inventory coming from new constructions and investors who started their projects 6-18 months, and are just now coming to the market as they finish completion. Because these properties NEED to sell, oftentimes because the owners take out short term loans to save money on interest, they’ll be priced fairly aggressively to get them off the books.
In terms of price appreciation, much of this will be very location-dependent. I think we’ll see some markets do considerably well, for instance around the Amazon HQ2 locations. Overall, I’m going to say real estate prices are likely to increase about 3-4% in 2019…basically just inflation, plus an extra 1-2% on top of that.
And one last thing, is that we’ve definitely seen some stock market turmoil lately…this does INDIRECTLY effect the price of real estate, as investors have less money to invest when they lose money in stocks. I personally think 2019 won’t be a stellar year for stocks, and I’d expect things to continue to stay relatively flat.
Now at the end of the day…all of this considered, long term, this really won’t make any difference. 30 years from now, you’re not going to be worried about whether or not you should’ve bought a year later or a year sooner…it won’t make a difference. And as an investment property, when people don’t buy, they rent…and this means rentals do well in a “bad” economy. When we’re in a great economy and people are buying, housing prices go up and you’ve “made equity.” Either way, long term investment property wins.
So to sum things up:
In 2019, I predict we’re going to see interest rates between 5.4-5.5%
I predict we’ll continue to see excess inventory coming on the market
I predict it’ll take sellers LONGER to sell their property
I predict that overall, we’ll see about a 3-4% appreciation on prices
I predict stocks will have a relatively flat year, again
…and I predict that you’ll smash that like button.
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